Not that I especially well understand U.S Politics , how can I ,   never been there but if I we're a bookmaker I'd be tempted to lay Barack Obama , and no I do'nt mean anything sexually connotated , as not unattractive as I'm sure he is . .  

I'm not convinced that he really believes that he can win  the presidency , I suspect that some white american's , though most won't admit it , still have an instinctive unease at the prospect of a black President , and that his lack of experience could still trip him up in the campaign .
And as for the I think very real fear that someone might try to assassinate Barack Obama , if he's anything like as well protected as President Bush  they'd be unlikely to get a chance to , so let's hope that he is very  well protected .